This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe that it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The most important GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K into 1st place. That’s the best you to chase in my opinion. I will have a couple LUs that I put into a lot of GPPs hoping I will win them all, but I won’t have lots of LUs in total this week. Other than that, almost all of my play this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a couple of plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong might be the best drama on the card this weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I believe this is a fight the UFC is wanting him to win in his home country. I believe in championships, Yadong is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 girls fighters priced above him, with much smaller odds of winning ITD. I think you can make a case to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about possession. I think that this is a good place to lock in a win and possibly ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins which we can afford. More frequently than maybe 4 wins gets the job done in cash games.
GPP play of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card in -400. There is also worth on Hu Yaozong with him being $600 cheaper and the gambling line being nearly even. Normally when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them among the very popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of those guys are UFC level fighters, but I’m a little more impressed by what I have seen from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter in GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend at a fight that should not go all 3-rounds. If either of those men get an early finish they will likely be on the winning lineup. I am guessing Coulter are the lower owned guy of the two and that is what makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I love to target this week to get UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved producing lineups this week because I hate plugging in 2 underdogs once I think almost every favorite will get a win. I believe the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he has a very clear route to victory and he’s already won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the ability to be able to KO anyone on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st spot lineup, especially if it’s an early KO. In the first battle between these two guys Blaydes was able to receive 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up pretty quickly each time. If he’s in a position to end up like that here, I don’t find any way Blaydes are going to have the aerobic to try to wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is your scarier man on the feet and I really don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for long amounts of time. I believe Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a cardI don’t enjoy many underdogs I think he is the best you to aim with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t enjoy targeting at least one of these women in the $9k selection. I believe they need to all get wins, but I do not find any of them becoming 10x their salary. For Mueller, she’d want at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I believe she has to receive a finish to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA album and only 1 of the wins did not go to conclusion. She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a tournament. In addition, I believe Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning than Mueller does this that’s why I chose her over those two as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a lot of lineups this week but if I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller would be on zero of them.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every struggle, my personal approaches & recommendations, and also my selection prediction for every fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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